Day 4. Oh for the simple life

8-8-1. That’s the state of play tonight in the ACT election. It might not stay that way, but ABC election analyst Antony Green is sounding as confident as he’s sounded since election night. Meredith Hunter will lose her seat in Ginninderra, giving Labor’s Yvette Berry a seat in the legislative assembly and Labor three in Ginninderra.
If the count stays the way it is, Shane Rattenbury is about to become the most powerful politician in the ACT. He will decide who governs, he can influence the way it can govern.
The Liberal Party believes it has a greater chance of governing with Rattenbury as kingmaker. It may be wishful thinking, but it feels Hunter was way too close to Labor to ever turn against it, whereas Rattenbury is more likely to weigh up policy.
The problem for the Liberal Party is that Rattenbury wanted the Greens to take a seat in the Labor cabinet four years ago. His view hasn’t changed. If he is the sole Green, with the power to make government, he will want a role. And for Zed Seselja to offer that would mean going back on every public statement he’s made for the past two months.
The other problem for Seselja is, as of tonight, Labor and Liberal hold the same number of seats. The ‘moral’ argument put forward by the conservatives no longer stacks up. Interestingly, the Libs are now outpolling Labor on the popular vote. But three days ago,that wasn’t the measuring stick by which a government should be decided.
Btw – Simon Corbell is still struggling in Molonglo against Meegan Fitzharris, Steve Doszpot is tightening his grip, also in Molonglo, and Andrew Wall now looks set to win Brindabella.
But it is only Wednesday. You may have noticed I’m writing this in pencil.

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Wednesday night, and the sun seems to be setting on at least one political career

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