Right, let’s get on with it

Finally, it’s all over. Not officially, mind, cos we haven’t had the official final declaration. But for all intents and purposes, the 2012 ACT election is over. 8 Labor, 8 Liberal and one Green will make up the legislative assembly for the next four years.
Shane Rattenbury will be the most powerful man in the assembly, able to decide which legislation passes, which fails, and who governs. On the down side (for him) he’ll also have to attend every single vote the assembly takes.
Rattenbury received congratulatory calls today from both Zed Seselja and Katy Gallagher today. Tomorrow he’ll hold more formal preliminary talks with both leaders, before an afternoon get together with what will no doubt be a very downcast Greens membership.
How will the new assembly look? Almost certainly Katy Gallagher as Chief Minister, almost certainly Rattenbury as a minister.
Gallagher desperately wants to broaden the ministry to six, but might have a battle convincing the Libs to support her wishes.
Mary Porter or Mick Gentleman might find themselves as speaker. And Seselja and the Libs will spend another four years in opposition.

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The territory’s going to be run by who?

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One response to “Right, let’s get on with it

  1. Hi Ross

    The maths on this is simple, the politics harder, and the personal ambition the key. To all intents and purposes the election is a tie between the majors because the greens bled support to the ALP while the ALP bled support to the Liberal Party the reasons for this are fairly obvious and had the ALP campaign been halfway competent they may have had their second majority government in as many electoral cycles.

    So to the maker of Presidents (kings or queen maker so redundant in an age of Presidential style campaigns) the Greens. The large problem for the greens is that the last four years has seen the brand devalued and subsumed in to the Labor brand a much stronger brand in the ACT than anywhere else and one which has always leaned more heavily left than any other ALP Branch in the country. It has been and remains the only branch controled by the Socialist Left (their name for themselves not mine) of the Labor Party in the country.

    So differentiating someone like Simon Corbell from the greens is at best difficult and in most cases impossible, see the many policy areas in which Labor and the greens both claimed to be the proponents of the change, light rail, solar electricity, Canberra loves 40 anyone.

    So for the greens the question is does what future does Shane see for himself?

    As I see it he’s has two potential futures but the actions he takes now will exclude one of his futures for good.

    If Shane is motivated by a desire to rebuild and recreate the green ascendency then he has to create a key brand differentiating point from Labor this is not possible if he is part of any government.

    Shane as an executive member of any government will be unable to differentiate the greens from the government he creates and becomes a part of.

    This decision will end the greens a political party with representation in the Territory at the next election.Iin short the fate of the greens will be the same as the democrats and others who sort to change from mediating roles (keep the bastards honest) to participative roles.

    So if Shane is about the greens a a long term political force in the Territory he can’t be a part of a labor government but if Shane is about Shane then he can bargain for the best possible deal Ministry of his choice etc in the sure a certain knowledge that it will be his one and only shot at being a Minister either for himself or his party. Anyone see Michael Moore political career after he joined the Carnell government.

    If Shane supports Zed he only has to do so for the budget bills everything else can be dealt with on the floor of the chamber and given that the Liberals positions on environment issues is well known anything that gets done in support of the environment will be a win for Shane and the greens.

    Clear product differentiation and a parliament that operates as a genuine house of review of executive government. What more could a Green Party want power with glory and the ability to remain in policy and political terms pure.

    Anyway it will be an interesting time as who ever gets the gig as the CM will have lots of internal party issues to address. so what i want to know is will the Liberal and Labor parties the sell tickets to the next few party room meetings or do we have to wait and get on the sly.

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